AZG-BTC-001
BTC Confluence
Bitcoin-specific strategy targeting psychological round number zones combined with Fibonacci retracement. Crypto markets respect round numbers ($50K, $60K, $70K) in ways traditional markets do not.
Market Conditions
Primary Condition: ADX > 25 on H4 (trend confirmed)
Secondary: Price approaching psychological round number within trend context
Bonus: Round number aligns with Fibonacci 50% or 61.8% level (confluence)
Entry Criteria
Layer 1: 1D Context
Mark major round numbers ($10K intervals). Note previous reactions at these levels. Confirm daily trend direction.
Layer 2: H4 Trend Engine
ADX > 25 confirms trend strength. BTC trends can be powerful but also prone to sharp reversals.
Layer 3: Confluence Zone
Target entries where round number meets Fibonacci level (e.g., $60K + 61.8% retracement). The strongest setups have both.
Layer 4: H1 Trigger
Crypto moves fast. Look for decisive rejection at level: sharp wick rejection, volume spike rejection, or 5-minute confirmation of level holding.
Invalidation Rules
• Stop loss: Beyond the psychological round number that failed to hold
• BTC volatility spike (multiple $1000 moves in minutes) = exit, reassess
• H1 close beyond round number in wrong direction = pattern invalid
• Crypto-specific: major exchange news/hack/court ruling = stop all positions
Session Filter
BTC never sleeps — but volatility patterns exist:
Preferred: US session overlap with Europe (13:00-20:00 UTC) — highest volume
Caution: Late US/Sunday evenings — lower liquidity, wider spreads
Avoid: Without news filter — crypto news events (SEC announcements, ETF decisions) override technicals
Position Sizing
CANDIDATE phase: 0.5% risk per trade (paper trading / demo)
ACTIVE phase: 1% risk per trade (consider starting at 0.75% given crypto volatility)
Crypto-specific: Use lower leverage than FX. 2-3x max on perps.
Tracking
Trades logged: 0
Wins: 0 | Losses: 0
Win Rate (WR): —%
Risk:Reward (RR): —
Status: Awaiting first backtest results