AZG-XAG-001
Silver Laggard
Silver strategy that uses Gold as a leading indicator. XAU often moves first; XAG follows with higher volatility. Trade XAG moves confirmed by XAU direction.
Market Conditions
Primary Condition: ADX > 25 on both XAU and XAG H4 charts
Second Condition: XAU already broke structure (established move)
Third Condition: XAG still at Fibonacci level, lagging the move
Entry Criteria
Layer 1: 1D Context (XAU lead)
Confirm XAU has broken key structure and trend is established. XAU leads fundamentally and technically.
Layer 2: H4 Trend Engine
Both XAU and XAG must show ADX > 25. Check correlation — XAG should be showing similar +DI/-DI alignment but with lag.
Layer 3: XAG Fibonacci Zone
While XAU has already moved, XAG should still be retracing to 61.8% or 50%. This lag is the opportunity.
Layer 4: H1 Trigger + XAU Confirmation
Wait for XAG candle confirmation at Fib level. Simultaneously confirm XAU is continuing in expected direction (don't trade XAG lag if XAU is reversing).
Invalidation Rules
• Stop loss: Below XAG confirmation candle wick
• XAU reverses direction = XAG trade invalid, exit immediately
• XAG correlation breaks (moves opposite XAU significantly) = reassess
• Silver-specific: industrial metal news can decouple from gold — monitor separately
Session Filter
Preferred: London-NY overlap (13:00-16:00 UTC) — both metals liquid, correlation strongest
Acceptable: London session — XAU/XAG follow-through from Asian positioning
Avoid: Asian session alone — thinner XAG liquidity can cause false breakouts
Position Sizing
CANDIDATE phase: 0.5% risk per trade (paper trading / demo)
ACTIVE phase: 1% risk per trade
Note: XAG has higher volatility than XAU. Position sizing should be adjusted for ATR.
Tracking
Trades logged: 0
Wins: 0 | Losses: 0
Win Rate (WR): —%
Risk:Reward (RR): —
Status: Awaiting first backtest results