← Back to Playbook

AZG-XAU-001

Trend-Following Gold

XAU/USD | CANDIDATE | Created: 2025-04-30

ADX breakout strategy targeting strong trend continuation on Gold. Enter on H1 confirmation at Fibonacci confluence during established trend conditions.

Market Conditions

Primary Condition: ADX > 25 on H4 (trend confirmed)

Secondary: H4 +DI / -DI aligned with trend direction

Trend Direction: Determined by price structure on 1D (higher highs/lows = uptrend, lower highs/lows = downtrend)

Entry Criteria

Layer 1: 1D Context

Identify S/R zones and psychological levels. Confirm trend direction from daily structure.

Layer 2: H4 Trend Engine

ADX > 25 confirms trend strength. +DI above -DI = bullish; reverse for bearish.

Layer 3: Fibonacci Zone

Draw retracement from last swing. Target 61.8% as primary entry zone; 50% as secondary.

Layer 4: H1 Trigger

Wait for candle confirmation at Fibonacci level: rejection wick, engulfing pattern, or pin bar.

Invalidation Rules

• Stop loss: Below/above the invalidation candle wick (H1 confirmation candle)

• ADX drops below 20 during position = trend weakening, consider early exit

• 1D structure breaks (higher low lost in uptrend, lower high lost in downtrend)

Session Filter

Preferred: London-NY overlap (13:00-16:00 UTC) for highest probability

Acceptable: London open (08:00 UTC) if Asian session set clear range

Avoid: Late NY (after 20:00 UTC) and major red-folder news events

Position Sizing

CANDIDATE phase: 0.5% risk per trade (paper trading / demo)

ACTIVE phase: 1% risk per trade (live with small capital)

If WR drops below 50% for 20+ trades, archive with Death Note.

Tracking

Trades logged: 0

Wins: 0 | Losses: 0

Win Rate (WR): —%

Risk:Reward (RR):

Status: Awaiting first backtest results