← Back to Playbook

AZG-XAU-002

Range-Bound Fade

XAU/USD | CANDIDATE | Created: 2025-04-30

Counter-trend strategy for ranging Gold markets. Fade extremes when ADX confirms low volatility and price respects established range boundaries.

Market Conditions

Primary Condition: ADX < 25 on H4 (no clear trend)

Secondary: Price oscillating between established S/R on 1D/H4

Range Confirmation: At least 2 touches of both upper and lower boundaries

Entry Criteria

Layer 1: 1D Context

Mark clear S/R levels that have been tested multiple times. Confirm ranging structure (no new highs/lows breaking previous structure).

Layer 2: H4 Trend Engine

ADX < 25 confirms range environment. +DI and -DI frequently crossing indicates chop.

Layer 3: Range Extremes

Enter shorts at upper range boundary. Enter longs at lower range boundary. Don't chase mid-range.

Layer 4: H1 Trigger

Wait for rejection candle at range boundary: pin bar against boundary, engulfing rejection, or shooting star/hammer pattern.

Invalidation Rules

• Stop loss: Beyond range boundary (outside the established structure)

• ADX spikes above 30 during position = breakout starting, exit immediately

• Daily close outside range = structure broken, range strategy invalid

Session Filter

Preferred: Asian session (00:00-08:00 UTC) — ranges often hold

Caution: London open — breakout risk increases

Avoid: London-NY overlap — highest breakout probability, don't fade

Position Sizing

CANDIDATE phase: 0.5% risk per trade (paper trading / demo)

ACTIVE phase: 1% risk per trade (live with small capital)

Note: Range strategies typically have higher WR but lower RR. Target WR > 60% is critical.

Tracking

Trades logged: 0

Wins: 0 | Losses: 0

Win Rate (WR): —%

Risk:Reward (RR):

Status: Awaiting first backtest results